Crypto Quill

Bitcoin’s been sliding since mid-January, frustrating bulls and confusing traders. But signs are starting to point toward a major move—up or down, that’s the real question.

For weeks now, Bitcoin has looked stuck—trapped in a slow but relentless dip, like a roller coaster stuck in reverse. Prices have dropped, ETF inflows cooled off, and the hype faded. Yet the underlying story is more complicated. Beneath the surface, things are shifting. Some call it preparation. Others say it’s just a lull before another dip. Either way, pressure is building.

ETF Outflows Are Slowing—and That’s Worth Watching

Let’s rewind to the start of 2024. The buzz around spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US was sky-high. Everyone wanted in. Then came the selloff. But here’s the thing: that wave of withdrawals is losing steam.

In the first half of March, ETF outflows dipped. That’s not just good news—it could mean the tide is turning. Why? Because fewer redemptions suggest lower liquidity pressure.

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And the data backs it up. According to Farside Investors, daily outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC have been tapering off, while inflows into other Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s iShares are steady. That’s a sign investors aren’t bailing out in a panic anymore.

• If ETF outflows remain low and inflows pick up again, Bitcoin could be on firmer ground than most think.

CME Futures Are Quietly Telling a Story of Their Own

There’s another signal people aren’t paying enough attention to: open interest on Bitcoin futures, especially on CME. It’s quietly bubbling.

Just a few weeks ago, open interest plunged to a multi-month low. That was worrying. Now? It’s creeping back up. This could mean traders are coming back to the table, maybe even recalibrating for a big breakout.

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Arbitrage players—those who capitalise on the price differences between spot and futures—seem to be repositioning. It’s not yet a stampede, but it’s movement. And movement is good.

Long-Term Holders Aren’t Budging—That’s a Big Deal

Here’s where things get interesting. While short-term traders panic, the long-term holders (LTHs) are sitting tight. They’re not selling. Not even flinching.

In fact, data from Glassnode shows that over 70% of Bitcoin in circulation hasn’t moved in over six months. That’s massive. These are the people who don’t care about daily candles—they’re in it for the long haul.

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And historically, when long-term holders tighten their grip, prices find stability.

A Technical Tug-of-War at $89,800

Now, let’s talk numbers. Bitcoin is dancing just below a big resistance zone—$89,800 to be exact. That level matters. It’s not just a number; it’s where traders have drawn the line.

If Bitcoin closes above it, even briefly, it could spark a surge toward $90,000 and beyond. But if it fails? We’re looking at a slide, possibly to $85,000 or lower. Traders call it a “make-or-break” zone.

Here’s a quick breakdown:

Keep in mind, volumes are still relatively thin. A sudden push—either way—could trigger a cascade of liquidations. That’s what makes this zone so fragile.

Sentiment Feels Jittery, But Not Hopeless

Bitcoin’s sentiment meter is twitching. Not exactly bullish, but not full-blown fear either. Some call it cautious optimism. Others call it confusion.

Social media chatter is quieter than usual. Google search volume for “Bitcoin price” is down. But interestingly, Bitcoin wallets holding 1 BTC or more are climbing. That suggests quiet accumulation.

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Maybe retail investors aren’t convinced just yet—but the big players? They’re slowly returning.

It’s not explosive. It’s not loud. But it’s happening in the background. And that’s often how the best reversals begin.