Crypto Quill

Solana, once celebrated for its massive decentralized validator network, just recorded its lowest node count since 2021. Only 795 active validators remain as of late January 2026, down a brutal 68% from the March 2023 peak of about 2,560. At the same time, SOL price is fighting for survival around the $117 support level that analysts have watched for months.

The combination of shrinking validators and growing stake concentration has triggered the loudest centralization warnings in Solana’s history.

Data from Solana Compass shows the active validator count ended January 2026 at exactly 795. That marks the lowest figure since early 2021, before the network’s explosive growth phase.

The decline accelerated through 2025. From roughly 1,900 validators in January 2025, the network lost more than half its nodes in just twelve months.

This is not a gentle correction. It is the sharpest validator exodus Solana has ever seen.

Nakamoto Coefficient Collapses 35%

The Nakamoto Coefficient, which measures how many entities would need to collude to take over the network, has fallen roughly 35% since the 2023 peak.

Fewer validators now control a much larger share of the total stake. Independent analysts say the network can now theoretically be compromised by coordinating just 21 to 23 large stake holders instead of the 33 required at the previous high.

That dramatic drop in fault tolerance has rattled long-time Solana supporters who always pointed to the network’s high validator count as proof of robust decentralization.

Why Thousands of Validators Shut Down

Running a Solana validator became painfully expensive in 2025.

The biggest cost driver is the voting fee. Each validator must pay approximately 401 SOL per year just to participate in consensus voting. At current prices, that equals more than $47,000 annually, and the fee is burned forever.

Add hardware, colocation, bandwidth, and staff costs, and many small operators simply could not break even.

One European validator who shut down in November 2025 told industry reporters the monthly burn rate exceeded $6,000 while commission earnings barely covered half that amount.

The Solana Foundation did conduct a cleanup campaign around April 2025 that removed hundreds of dormant or under-performing nodes. But most operators insist the main driver is pure economics, not foundation pruning.

Price Action Shows Bears Still in Control

SOL price continues its ugly downtrend that started after the November 2025 local top near $295.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) currently reads 33, confirming the bear trend still has significant strength left. Readings above 25 typically signal a strong directional move, giving sellers plenty of room to push lower.

The $117 zone is the last major demand area before a potential free-fall toward $80 to $90, a level last seen in late 2023.

On-chain data shows heavy profit-taking by large holders throughout January, while retail investors who bought the 2024-2025 rally are now underwater and increasingly selling at a loss.

What Happens Next for Solana

A sustained break below $117 would confirm the macro bear market resumption and likely trigger another wave of validator shutdowns. More nodes going offline would worsen centralization, creating a dangerous feedback loop.

Community proposals to slash voting costs or introduce tiered fees are gaining traction, but none have reached a final vote yet.

Some developers argue the network is simply maturing and that 800 high-quality, professional validators are healthier than 2,500 under-funded hobby nodes. Others call it the slow death of the decentralization promise that attracted millions in the first place.

One thing is clear: Solana faces its toughest test since the FTX collapse. The network that once boasted the largest validator count in the industry now fights to prove it can remain truly decentralized while staying economically viable.

The next few weeks will tell us whether $117 holds as support or becomes the launch pad for the next leg down, both in price and in validator participation.