Crypto Quill

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been on a strong uptrend since the beginning of the year, breaking several records and reaching new highs. Recently, it surpassed the $55,000 mark for the first time in over two years, signaling a bullish breakout from a 15-month channel. This has prompted some experts to revise their projections for the future value of the digital asset, including veteran trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt.

Peter Brandt Raises His Forecast for Bitcoin

Peter Brandt, the CEO of Factor LLC and a renowned commodities and foreign exchange trader with over four decades of experience, has raised his forecast for the peak of the current bitcoin bull market cycle, which he expects to end by August or September 2025. In a recent post on X, Brandt said that he has increased his target from $120,000 to $200,000, based on the thrust above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, identified by trendlines connecting November 2022 and September lows and April 2023 and Jan 2024 highs.

Brandt said that his bullish view will remain valid as long as the price stays above the last week’s low of around $50,500. He also warned against the use of “laser eyes” profile photos on social media, which he views as a “contrary indicator” that may signal retail investor mania and market tops. He said that he will use laser eyes as a counter indicator, just as he did in 2021, and advised people not to adopt them if they want bitcoin to remain in a strong trend.

Other Studies Support the Bullish Case for Bitcoin

Brandt’s optimistic prediction is in line with other studies that anticipate higher bitcoin prices in the coming years, driven by various factors such as the supply-constraining effect of the quadrennial reward halving events, the growing demand from institutional and retail investors, and the increasing adoption of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bloomberg analysts even predict that bitcoin ETFs will surpass gold ETFs in terms of assets under management within the next two years.

Bitcoin’s next reward halving, which is due in April, will reduce the rate at which new coins are generated from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins per validated block. This will create a supply shock that will likely boost the price of the cryptocurrency, as it has done in the past. Historical trends suggest that bitcoin could reach levels comparable to previous cycle peaks, which were around 100 times higher than the price at the time of the halving.

Additionally, technical analysis indicators such as the Bollinger bandwidth, which measures the volatility of the price movements, suggest that bitcoin is poised for a near-vertical rally, similar to those observed in 2013 and 2017. The bandwidth is currently at its lowest level since November 2022, indicating a period of consolidation before a major breakout.

Bitcoin Price Reaches Highest Level in Two Years

On Monday, bitcoin hit its highest point in over two years, reaching $57,000. The cryptocurrency rose 9% to briefly touch the $57,000 milestone, its first time since November 2021, before dropping back down to around $56,500 levels. The rally was fueled by the positive sentiment surrounding the approval of 11 spot bitcoin ETF applications by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which will allow investors to access the cryptocurrency without having to deal with the technical and regulatory challenges of holding it directly.

The spot bitcoin ETFs, which will track the price of the underlying asset rather than using futures contracts, are expected to launch in the first quarter of 2025. They will join the existing futures-based bitcoin ETFs, which have already attracted over $2 billion in assets since their debut in October 2023. The introduction of the spot bitcoin ETFs is seen as a major milestone for the cryptocurrency industry, as it will increase its legitimacy, liquidity, and accessibility to a wider range of investors.