Crypto Quill

SUI, the native token of the high-speed layer-1 blockchain, just broke down hard from the lower trendline of its multi-month falling wedge pattern, flashing one of the clearest bearish signals in crypto this week. The token closed Tuesday at $1.12 after a 2% daily loss, and the breakdown warns of a potential slide toward $0.85 or lower in the weeks ahead.

The falling wedge had been the last hope for bulls since October 2024. Price repeatedly bounced off the lower trendline near $1.15–$1.20, forming higher lows while the upper trendline sloped down. Tuesday’s close below $1.14 on elevated volume officially invalidated the bullish setup and flipped it into a bearish continuation pattern.

On-chain data from DefiLlama shows spot CVD (cumulative volume delta) on Binance and OKX turned sharply negative in the last 48 hours, confirming aggressive distribution by large holders. This is not retail panic selling; it is smart money exiting.

HashKey Listing Comes at the Worst Possible Time

HashKey Exchange, one of Asia’s most respected licensed platforms with daily spot volume between $115 million and $193 million, will open SUI/USD trading today, February 4, 2026, at 4:00 PM Hong Kong time. Normally this would be rocket fuel for any altcoin.

Instead, the listing lands right after a confirmed breakdown. History shows that “buy the news” rallies after exchange listings rarely last when price is already below major support. The extra liquidity may actually accelerate the next leg down as new sellers get easy access to the pair.

RSI Oversold – But Don’t Call the Bottom Yet

The daily RSI dipped to 28 yesterday, its lowest level since the November 2022 FTX collapse. Oversold readings often produce sharp bounces, and SUI did print a long lower wick on Tuesday, rejecting $1.08.

However, every major SUI bottom in the past two years (May 2023, August 2023, August 2024, and November 2024) saw RSI reach 25 or lower before the real capitulation. At 28, the indicator still has room to fall. A relief rally toward $1.25–$1.30 is probable, but it will likely get sold aggressively and set up the next drop.

Where Is the Next Real Support?

If the current level fails to hold, the measured move from the wedge breakdown points to $0.85–$0.90, which lines up with:

• The 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the wedge
• The July 2025 low
• Highest volume node from the second half of 2024 on the VPVR

Below that, $0.65–$0.70 becomes the absolute macro bottom where the 2023–2025 uptrend line sits.

Broader Market Adds Heavy Pressure

Bitcoin failed to hold $75,000 this week and is now threatening the $70,000 zone. Altcoins almost never bottom before BTC does. The TOTAL2 crypto market cap chart (total market minus BTC) just broke its own year-long rising trendline. Until that picture improves, expecting SUI to decouple to the upside is wishful thinking.

The Sui ecosystem still boasts impressive fundamentals – daily active addresses above 2 million, TVL pushing $1.8 billion, and the fastest finality in layer-1 land. None of that matters when macro liquidity tightens and risk-off sentiment dominates.

SUI holders are facing a painful reality: the token that was trading above $2.50 just ten weeks ago now risks cutting in half again before this bear phase ends. A short-term bounce is coming, but the bigger trend remains firmly down until proven otherwise.