Crypto Quill

The odds of a Litecoin ETF hitting the U.S. market this year have surged to 85%, according to prediction platform Polymarket. With growing interest in crypto-backed ETFs, investors are watching closely to see if the SEC will greenlight Litecoin’s entry into the ETF space.

Polymarket’s Bet on Litecoin ETF Approval

Polymarket’s forecast hinges on whether a spot Litecoin ETF gets the nod from the SEC by December 31, 2025. The platform specifies that if approval comes under Rule 19-4b, even without an S-1 clearance, the prediction will still resolve as a ‘Yes.’ Conversely, an S-1 approval without 19-4b would also count as a green light.

This rising confidence follows a series of crypto ETF approvals, starting with Bitcoin and Ethereum products. While Litecoin isn’t as dominant as Bitcoin, its long-standing presence and proof-of-work mechanism make it a potential candidate for institutional investment vehicles.

Analyst Raises Approval Odds to 90%

Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, has been tracking developments closely. On February 21, he pointed out that the Canary Litecoin Spot ETF appeared on the DTCC website, a major step towards listing.

“Doesn’t mean it’s approved or ready to start trading, but it does show the issuer is making preparations for when it is,” Balchunas noted on X (formerly Twitter). He also raised his approval probability estimate to 90%.

A DTCC listing doesn’t guarantee an immediate green light, but it signals that an ETF issuer is actively preparing for launch. Many believe this listing shows confidence from the fund manager that regulatory hurdles could soon be cleared.

Litecoin’s Market Standing and Impact

Litecoin currently ranks 18th in the cryptocurrency market, with a $10.11 billion market cap. It has seen a 2.4% change in the last 24 hours, per CoinGecko data. While not in the top 10, Litecoin has been a staple in the crypto space since its launch in 2011.

A spot ETF approval would likely bring more liquidity and institutional investors, similar to how Bitcoin’s ETF launch impacted its price and adoption.

Key takeaways on Litecoin’s ETF status:

• Polymarket odds: 85% chance of approval by 2025.
• Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas: Increased odds to 90% after DTCC listing.
• SEC’s approval process: Rule 19-4b and S-1 pathways could both lead to a ‘Yes’ resolution.
• Market impact: Approval could boost Litecoin’s liquidity and mainstream adoption.

What’s Next for Litecoin’s ETF Push?

The road to ETF approval is never straightforward. The SEC has been cautious about crypto-related financial products, often citing concerns over fraud, market manipulation, and investor protections.

However, Bitcoin ETFs have paved the way for alternative digital assets. If Litecoin secures approval, it could open the door for other cryptocurrencies like Solana or Cardano to follow suit.

For now, all eyes are on regulators. As Polymarket and analysts raise their expectations, Litecoin’s supporters hope 2025 will be the year a spot ETF finally becomes a reality.