Crypto Quill

As the altcoin market reels from a weekend downturn, Toncoin (TON) faces a critical moment. The broader crypto market, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, dipped to $910 billion, shaking investor confidence. With a 44% drop from its peak, TON traders are anxiously watching whether the price will stabilize or slip further below $3.

Toncoin Struggles to Hold Above $3.63

TON’s price has been on a rough ride. After failing to sustain momentum at $4.65 on February 1st, the altcoin plunged sharply, landing at the $3.63 support level. This breakdown confirmed the bearish trend within a descending triangle pattern.

Despite the selloff, TON has managed to stay afloat above $3.63, hovering around $3.81. This sideways movement suggests indecision among traders, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is attempting a recovery, hinting at a possible slowdown in selling pressure.

The next key resistance lies at the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), sitting close to the crucial $4 psychological mark. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a push toward $4.67, where the 50-day EMA acts as the next challenge. On the flip side, a close below $3.63 would likely trigger a test of the $3 support, a make-or-break level for Toncoin’s near-term outlook.

Market Sentiment Remains Uncertain

Investor sentiment toward Toncoin has turned cautious. The sharp drop over the past three months has left many wondering if the worst is over or if more pain is ahead.

• The broader altcoin market slump has added pressure, with traders showing signs of risk aversion.
• Funding rates in perpetual futures contracts indicate mixed emotions, with some short positions still active.
• On-chain data suggests a slight decline in active addresses, reflecting lower engagement among holders.

Meanwhile, whale movements have been closely watched. Large transactions suggest some accumulation at lower levels, but the lack of strong buying momentum keeps uncertainty high.

Bollinger Bands Signal Imminent Volatility

A closer look at the 12-hour chart reveals a tightening Bollinger Bands pattern. Ali Martinez, a popular crypto analyst, points out that this squeeze indicates an impending volatility surge.

Typically, a Bollinger Band squeeze precedes a big move. Whether that move will be upward or downward remains the question. If TON breaks above $4, expect a short-term rally. But if it loses the $3.63 level, a sharp dip to $3—or lower—could follow.

What’s Next for Toncoin?

With technical indicators painting a mixed picture, traders should keep a close eye on key levels:

Key Level	Significance
$4.00	Psychological resistance; needs to be broken for a bullish move
$4.67	Next resistance near 50-day EMA
$3.63	Crucial support level; breakdown could lead to further declines
$3.00	Strong psychological support; losing this level could accelerate losses

The market is at a standstill, but with volatility brewing, a breakout in either direction seems imminent. Whether bulls can reclaim dominance or bears drag Toncoin further down remains to be seen.